2020年至2050年204个国家和地区29种癌症全球经济成本的估计和预测

SCI 16 March 2023

Estimates and Projections of the Global Economic Cost of 29 Cancers in 204 Countries and Territories From 2020 to 2050

(JAMA Oncology, IF: 33.006)

Simiao Chen, Zhong Cao, Klaus Prettner, Michael Kuhn, Juntao Yang, Lirui Jiao, Zhuoran Wang, Weimin Li, Pascal Geldsetzer, Till Bärnighausen, David E. Bloom, Chen Wang,

CORRESPONDENCE TO: wangchen@pumc.edu.cn

IMPORTANCE 重要性

Cancers are a leading cause of mortality, accounting for nearly 10 million annual deaths worldwide, or 1 in 6 deaths. Cancers also negatively affect countries’ economic growth. However, the global economic cost of cancers and its worldwide distribution have yet to be studied.

癌症是导致死亡的主要原因，全世界每年约有1000万人因癌症死亡，占死亡人数的六分之一。癌症也对国家的经济增长产生负面影响。然而，癌症的全球经济成本及其全球分布尚待研究。

OBJECTIVE 目的

To estimate and project the economic cost of 29 cancers in 204 countries and territories.

估算和预测204个国家和地区29种癌症的经济成本。

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS 设计，设置和参与者  

A decision analytical model that incorporates economic feedback in assessing health outcomes associated with the labor force and investment. A macroeconomic model was used to account for (1) the association of cancer-related mortality and morbidity with labor supply; (2) age-sex-specific differences in education, experience, and labor market participation of those who are affected by cancers; and (3) the diversion of cancer treatment expenses from savings and investments. Data were collected on April 25, 2022.

一个将经济反馈纳入评估与劳动力和投资相关的健康结果的决策分析模型。宏观经济模型用于解释（1）癌症相关死亡率和发病率与劳动力供应的关联；（2） 受癌症影响者的教育，经验和劳动力市场参与的年龄-性别差异；（3）从储蓄和投资中转移用于癌症治疗的费用。数据收集于2022年4月25日。

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES 主要成果和措施  

Economic cost of 29 cancers across countries and territories. Costs are presented in international dollars at constant 2017 prices.

各国和地区29种癌症的经济成本。成本以2017年不变的价格以国际美元表示。

RESULTS 结果  

The estimated global economic cost of cancers from 2020 to 2050 is $25.2 trillion in international dollars (at constant 2017 prices), equivalent to an annual tax of 0.55% on global gross domestic product. The 5 cancers with the highest economic costs are tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (15.4%); colon and rectum cancer (10.9%); breast cancer (7.7%); liver cancer (6.5%); and leukemia (6.3%). China and the US face the largest economic costs of cancers in absolute terms, accounting for 24.1%and 20.8%of the total global burden, respectively. Although 75.1% of cancer deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, their share of the economic cost of cancers is lower at 49.5%. The relative contribution of treatment costs to the total economic cost of cancers is greater in high-income countries than in low-income countries.

据估计，2020年至2050年癌症的全球经济成本为国际美元25.2万亿美元（以2017年不变的价格计算），相当于全球国内生产总值年税的0.55%。经济成本最高的5种癌症是气管、支气管和肺癌（15.4%）；结直肠癌（10.9%）；乳腺癌（7.7%）；肝癌（6.5%）；中国和美国绝对面临最大的癌症经济成本，分别占全球总负担的24.1%和20.8%。虽然75.1%的癌症死亡发生在低收入和中等收入国家，但它们在癌症经济成本中所占的比例较低，为49.5%。高收入国家相对低收入国家在癌症总经济成本的治疗费用贡献较大。

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE 结论和相关性  

In this decision analytical modeling study, the macroeconomic cost of cancers was found to be substantial and distributed heterogeneously across cancer types, countries, and world regions. The findings suggest that global efforts to curb the ongoing burden of cancers are warranted.

在这项决策分析模型研究中，癌症的宏观经济成本极大，并且在癌症类型，国家和世界区域中差异性分布。研究结果表明，全球遏制癌症负担的努力是必要的。