新研究预测，到 2025 年医护人员将大量外流

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A sobering new survey released by Elsevier Health, called “Clinician of the Future,” reveals a prediction that up to 75% of healthcare workers will be leaving the healthcare profession by 2025. For those of you doing the math, that’s only three short years away. 

It’s a shocking prediction that, if true even at a small scale, will have lasting ramifications for the entire world. If you have struggled trying to get medical care in the last few months, you may have already had a taste of what a future without any healthcare workers can look like. Here’s more on what the survey revealed, what could happen if things don’t change, and some strategies for changing the healthcare industry for the better. 

Survey Says

The survey was done two years after the pandemic first began (side note: school in our area shut down exactly two years ago today, which is so wild to think about). Essentially, what it found can be boiled down to a few important points: 

Both nurses and doctors are burned out. 

Both nurses and doctors are at risk of leaving the profession. 

The majority of healthcare workers don’t feel like they have a good work-life balance. 

Many healthcare workers responded that dealing with families can be very stressful. 

All of the healthcare workers also pinpointed specific challenges that will only continue to grow in the coming years: 

An aging population with increasing healthcare needs

Patients that are becoming more empowered

The fast pace of healthcare technology

A transition to home-based healthcare

All of the challenges the survey predicted–directly from healthcare professionals–are very interesting. For instance, the second point directly describes patient behavior, which as a result of a more connected society and readily available health information at our fingertips, could actually increase some of the challenges on healthcare workers. This could be interpreted as everything from patients requesting specific tests or treatment based on their own healthcare research to patients managing their own healthcare in ways that could lead to delayed professional treatment and thus, more advanced diseases and conditions that require more complicated treatment. 

And, on the flip side, it can also lead to more of a focus on preventive and wellness care, which carries a demand for different types of care, such as vaccines, nutritional services, and wellness checks, like skin checks and annuals. 

The other two points are also very interesting: clinicians are constantly being forced to adapt to new technologies that are both used in the workplace and by patients. For instance, who could have imagined a world in which doctors need to be aware of what’s trending on TikTok so they can monitor their patients for symptoms or battle misinformation? Being forced to change new software, passwords, and ways to stay in touch with team members and patients can also be exhausting on top of hands-on clinical care. 

And the last point is fascinating: with the advent of telehealth–only ushered in and accepted at a faster pace because of the pandemic—there has been a movement towards more home-based healthcare. This includes everything from virtual visits to ventures like Amazon Care, which aim to literally send nurses into people’s homes for check-ups. 

Additionally, while virtual visits and telehealth may be convenient, it’s easy to forget that virtual visits require different skills than in-person visits. A clinician who has worked their entire career in an in-person setting will not necessarily automatically translate those abilities through a computer screen. So virtual visits do require additional training and skills. 

全文翻译（仅供参考）

Elsevier Health 发布的一项名为“未来临床医生”的令人警醒的新调查显示，到 2025 年，多达 75% 的医疗保健工作者将离开医疗保健行业。对于那些做数字的人来说，这只是短短三年离开。 

这是一个令人震惊的预测，即使在小范围内也是如此，它将对整个世界产生持久的影响。如果您在过去几个月里一直在努力寻求医疗服务，那么您可能已经尝到了没有任何医护人员的未来会是什么样子。这里有更多关于调查显示的内容、如果事情不改变会发生什么，以及一些使医疗保健行业变得更好的策略。 

该调查是在大流行首次开始两年后完成的（旁注：我们地区的学校在两年前的今天就停课了，这太疯狂了）。从本质上讲，它的发现可以归结为几个要点： 

护士和医生都精疲力尽。 

护士和医生都有离职的风险。 

大多数医护人员不觉得他们有良好的工作与生活平衡。 

许多医护人员回应说，与家人打交道可能会带来很大压力。 

所有医护人员还指出了未来几年只会继续增长的具体挑战： 

人口老龄化，医疗保健需求不断增加

越来越有能力的患者

医疗保健技术的快速发展

向家庭医疗保健的过渡

调查预测的所有挑战（直接来自医疗保健专业人员）都非常有趣。例如，第二点直接描述了患者的行为，由于社会联系更加紧密，以及触手可及的健康信息，这实际上可能会增加医疗工作者的一些挑战。这可以解释为从根据自己的医疗保健研究请求特定测试或治疗的患者到以可能导致延迟专业治疗的方式管理自己的医疗保健的患者以及需要更复杂治疗的更晚期疾病和病症的所有内容。 

而且，另一方面，它也可能导致更多地关注预防和健康护理，这需要不同类型的护理，如疫苗、营养服务和健康检查，如皮肤检查和年度检查。 

另外两点也很有趣：临床医生不断被迫适应工作场所和患者使用的新技术。例如，谁能想象这样一个世界，医生需要了解 TikTok 上的趋势，以便他们可以监控患者的症状或与错误信息作斗争？被迫更改新软件、密码以及与团队成员和患者保持联系的方式也可能会让人筋疲力尽。 

最后一点令人着迷：随着远程医疗的出现——只是由于大流行而以更快的速度被引入和接受——出现了向更多以家庭为基础的医疗保健的运动。这包括从虚拟访问到诸如Amazon Care之类的企业的所有内容，这些企业旨在将护士送到人们家中进行检查。 

此外，虽然虚拟访问和远程医疗可能很方便，但很容易忘记虚拟访问需要与亲自访问不同的技能。整个职业生涯都在面对面环境中工作的临床医生不一定会通过计算机屏幕自动翻译这些能力。因此，虚拟访问确实需要额外的培训和技能。 

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